Gavin Baker - Watts and Wafers

The best podcast I’ve listened to in the last few months. Gavin Baker returns for a sixth conversation on the physical constraints shaping the next phase of AI: power (watts) and semiconductor supply (wafers). He argues the near-term power shortage eases in 2027–2028, orbital compute solves it long-term, and TSMC capacity decisions may be the single most important variable to watch.

Also covered: what differs this time from the dotcom bubble, Elon’s Terrafab, GPU disaggregation, new chip companies, and whether economic value keeps accruing to frontier models.